The Fanatic Perspective 2016 NFL Preview
By: Steven Ngati
Division Winners
AFC East: New England Patriots – I think the Patriots will go 3-1 with Jimmy Garoppolo. The only loss I see for them is the Arizona Cardinals in Week 1. I think Tom Brady comes back from suspension on a rampage as the Patriots secure the home field advantage that eluded them last season. The Bills, Dolphins and Jets all have solid rosters and this is their best opportunity to knock off Brady and Belichick since Bernard Pollard took out Brady’s knee in 2008. Until I actually see it happen though, I’m giving the Pats the benefit of the doubt here.
AFC North: Pittsburgh Steelers – This will likely come down to Week 17, but I like the Steelers over the Bengals and Ravens, because their defense will be improved enough to pair with an explosive offense. Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown will carry the load until Le’Veon Bell joins them off his suspension in Week 5. The Steelers, Bengals and Ravens will all have winning records, but only two will make the playoffs. The Browns will be fun on offense with RGIII and Hue Jackson, but they don’t have enough talent especially on the defensive end, to keep up with the rest of the division. I think the Bengals take a step back even though Andy Dalton returns. I don’t think Brandon LaFell is an adequate replacement for Marvin Jones and Mohammed Sanu. If the Bengals fall short of the playoffs, could this be Marvin Lewis’ final season in Cincinnati?
The Steelers missed Antonio Brown in their divisional playoff loss to the Denver Broncos last season. With Brown back, but Le'Veon Bell and Martavis Bryant suspended they'll rely on Brown to be Mr. Everything in their high flying offense. (Photo Credit: NFL.com)
AFC South: Indianapolis Colts – This is an unpopular pick considering the upgrades that the Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars have made, but I’m buying Andrew Luck stock for a huge comeback season. He’s still the best quarterback in the division and is only one season removed from carrying his team to the AFC title game. Houston looks good on paper, but J.J. Watt is recovering from back surgery and I don’t trust Brock Osweiler. I know he played well in his seven starts for Denver last season, but he has to prove he can be “The Guy” and live up to the lofty expectations. I think the upgrades the Colts made on the offensive line coupled with an underrated Chuck Pagano defense will help propel the Colts to a division title.
AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs – I don’t think the Chiefs got enough credit for winning 10 straight games last season, especially after their best offensive player Jamaal Charles went down for the season. This is the only division winner that I’m picking which doesn’t feature the best quarterback in the division. This isn’t a slight towards Alex Smith who has been excellent since joining the Chiefs in 2013. I’m picking the Chiefs to edge out the Oakland Raiders for the AFC West crown because of their aggressive defense and Andy Reid. Say what you want about Reid but he’s one of the all-time great regular season coaches. Unfortunately, his inability to read a clock or manage time holds him back from being mentioned amongst the elite. Where’s Denver you ask? Not in the playoffs in my eyes. John Elway had a team built to win now in 2015 and they delivered. After losing some great players in free agency and whiffing on Mark Sanchez, I think the Broncos will suffer through a brutal schedule this season. I mean you’re starting Trevor Siemian. I don’t care how good that defense is. This division is improved and they won’t be able to overcome bad quarterback play like they did last year.
NFC East: New York Giants – When healthy and eligible the Dallas Cowboys are the best team in the division. Unfortunately, their health is directly tied to Tony Romo and he won’t play until October at the earliest. I loved what I saw from Dak Prescott in the preseason and I’m not worried about Prescott opening the season as a rookie starter. He’ll put up points and give the team the competent quarterback play they lacked in 2015. The reason I’m not picking the Cowboys to win the division is based on their defense. The suspensions in the front seven will hurt and the secondary, while solid, won’t produce enough turnovers to make up for the yards they’ll give up and the lack of pass rush by the defensive line. I’m picking the Giants to win the division because I think Eli Manning will be rejuvenated with Ben McAdoo taking over as head coach for Tom Coughlin, who the team seemed to be burnt out by the last couple seasons. Odell Beckham Jr. Sterling Shepard and whatever they get from Victor Cruz will be very difficult to stop. I don’t see a team in this division with the personnel to defend that group. I’m not sold on the Giants’ defense either, but I think they’ll be good enough to win it this year. The Eagles are rebuilding at this point so I have no expectations for them. The Redskins are favored by a lot of writers and analysts, but traditionally they have struggled when expectations are high coming into a season. Kirk Cousins will throw for a ton of yards in Jay Gruden’s offense, but I’m not buying Matt Jones being a reliable starting running back and I think their defense is very overrated. They won the division last year without beating a team with a winning record. I don’t think the Redskins roster is good enough talent wise to repeat as division winners.
NFC North: Green Bay Packers – There really shouldn’t be any excuses for Green Bay this year. I really liked Minnesota before Teddy Bridgewater’s knee exploded. I think Sam Bradford will still get the Vikings to playoffs, but it will take time for him to get going in a new offense. I don’t see Detroit and Chicago as threats to Green Bay and Minnesota, so it’s essentially a two team race here. Aaron Rodgers has his favorite target back in Jordy Nelson and Mike McCarthy is calling plays again. That’s good enough for me to have faith in the cheese heads again. I think the Packers go 13-3, recapture the NFC North crown and lead the league in offense this season.
Rodgers has his number one target back and McCarthy is back in his comfort zone. Things are looking bright for the Green Bay Packers. (Photo Credit: AP/Jose Sanchez)
NFC South: Carolina Panthers – This may be the deepest division in terms of quarterback play. I think every team in the NFC south will be in the hunt for the division through at least Week 12 before the Saints and Panthers separate themselves. I see Carolina taking their 3rd straight division title when the dust settles because I believe in Cam Newton and Ron Rivera’s defensive system, even with the loss of Josh Norman. I don’t think the Panthers will be 15-1 good this year, because of how competitive their division will be, but I believe somewhere between 11-5 or 10-6 should do the trick for them.
NFC West: Seattle Seahawks – Another division I see as a two team race. Last year, the Cardinals went 14-2 after beating Seattle on the road to clinch the division. I think Seattle holds serve against Arizona at home this season and goes undefeated at CenturyLink field. I have questions about how Carson Palmer ended last season as he didn’t play well against the Packers and Panthers. Palmer played at an MVP level during the regular season and I see him taking a slight dip in 2016. With Marshawn Lynch retired, this is officially Russell Wilson’s team now and I think they’ll have a dynamic aerial attack which will propel him to be an MVP candidate and Seattle, the luxury of having a first round bye in the playoffs.
Wild Card Teams
AFC: Baltimore Ravens and Oakland Raiders – I think Baltimore is going to be much improved because I trust Ozzie Newsome and John Harbaugh. Joe Flacco will be fine coming off the torn ACL and I think Mike Wallace will be an excellent addition as Flacco’s deep threat. Wallace was useless in his last two stops, playing in conservative ball control offenses but he flourished playing with a big arm quarterback like Big Ben because he could take advantage of his deep speed. Defensively, the Ravens are healthy again and should have a nice pass rush with the return of Terrell Suggs. Derek Carr is the best quarterback in the AFC West and while I don’t have the Raiders winning the division, I do think they’ll win enough games to grab the final wild card spot. I think the Raiders win 10 games this season, as they make the playoffs for the first time in 14 years. It will be a nice parting gift before they eventually head off to Las Vegas.
Derek Carr and Amari Cooper are apart of a young nucleus that has brought hope and excitement back to the storied Raiders franchise. (Photo Credit: cleatgeeks.com)
NFC: Arizona Cardinals and Minnesota Vikings - Despite my prediction for a drop in Carson Palmer’s production, I do think he’ll be very good this season, just not 14-2, MVP runner-up good like 2015. That alone will be enough for Arizona to secure a playoff spot. I really like the addition of Chandler Jones to the Cardinals defense. He’s the best pass rusher they’ve had in the Patrick Peterson/Tyrann Mathieu era. People blew up on social media about the Vikings trading a king’s ransom for Sam Bradford after Bridgewater went down. Yes, it’s an expensive price to pay for an injury prone, underachieving quarterback but that doesn’t mean it’s a bad move. The Vikings have a roster that’s ready to win now and there’s no telling how long their window will be open. Sam Bradford has never worked with an elite coach and has been surrounded by subpar receiving talent since he entered the league. Who’s the best receiver that Bradford has played with? Jordan Matthews? Bradford will excel in Norv Turner’s offense playing alongside Adrian Peterson as he gets up to speed just in time to nab the final playoff spot.
Individual Awards
Rookie of the Year: Ezekiel Elliott RB (Dallas Cowboys)- Barring health, Zeke should be a shoe in for 1,200 plus rushing yards and double digit td’s running behind the best offensive line in the league. The only potential setback may be the growing pains of fellow rookie Dak Prescott, but I don’t see that being a hindrance. As a matter of fact, Elliott’s main competition for ROY honors may be from Prescott as I believe he is in a great position to put up big numbers and start up a real quarterback controversy once Romo is healthy again. With that being said, Elliott gets the edge as he could be the first rookie running back to lead the league in rushing since Edgerrin James back in 1999.
It's been a weird offseason for Zeke Elliott, but he justified the on-field hype with his impressive preaseason debut against the Legion of Boom. Don't be surprised if he leads the NFL in rushing during his rookie season. (Photo Credit: AP/Stephen Braeshear)
Coach of the Year: Mike Zimmer (Minnesota Vikings) – Losing your starting quarterback for the entire season before Week 1 is a near impossible situation to deal with, especially when you’re a serious contender. Zimmer is outstanding dealing with adversity and his strong personality will help galvanize this team to make the playoffs after many people thought their season was over. Amongst players, Zimmer is one of the most beloved coaches in the league and if anyone can right the ship, it’s him.
Most Underrated Player: Eddie Lacy RB (Green Bay Packers) – Eddie Lacy had a horrible 2015 season. He got called out by his head coach for being overweight and was ridiculed on social media for being “Fat Eddie Lacy.” As bad as he was last year, people forget how banged up the Packers were on offense last season. Having Jordy Nelson back to stretch the field will open up more running room for Lacy to pound. The biggest change is Lacy’s diet. Eddie Lacy had a real eating problem and didn’t understand how to keep the pounds off because he didn’t know how to eat healthy. Fortunately, he was able to get professional help and lost 22 pounds during the offseason. Now that Lacy is back to his rookie season playing weight, it will pay huge dividends for the Packers this season. I recently lost 32 pounds myself and the natural energy I have from eating better has been night and day for me. I can only imagine how much more explosive Lacy feels in his new and improved body. I expect Lacy to be back over 1,000 yards rushing and 15 touchdowns on the ground (John Kuhn, the ultimate touchdown vulture is gone.)
Most Overrated Player: Josh Norman CB (Washington Redskins) – Josh Norman became a superstar during the 2015 season, helping the Carolina Panthers to a 15-1 record and Super Bowl appearance. Norman’s popularity grew amongst fans due to his trash talking and aggressive physical style of play. His skills were highlighted within the Carolina Panthers system in which he got to play a lot of zone behind a dominant pass rush. Norman didn’t have to cover guys for three and four seconds in man coverage down field and he benefited greatly from this. Don’t get me wrong, Norman is a very good corner. The issue is the Redskins are paying him to be a great lockdown corner in the mold of a Patrick Peterson or Chris Harris Jr. Can he travel with guys all over the field and in the slot? We all saw the practice clips of Norman getting roasted in Redskins practice by DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon, which to me is a real cause for concern. I hope the Redskins don’t plan on playing Norman in press man situations against Odell Beckham Jr. or Dez Bryant, because he does not have the speed and athleticism to keep up with those kinds of athletes down field. Unless the Redskins plan on switching to a base Tampa 2 scheme, I believe it will be a very long season for the highest paid cornerback in the league.
Comeback Player of the Year: Jordy Nelson WR (Green Bay Packers) – This is one of my favorite awards as I love watching guys rebound from injuries or off field challenges to perform well on the field. There’s a ton of candidates this year, Jamaal Charles, Kelvin Benjamin, Terrell Suggs, Joe Flacco, Steve Smith Sr., Keenan Allen, Josh Gordon, Orlando Scandrick, and even Robert Griffin III immediately come to mind. I think Jordy Nelson is going to pick right back up where he left off as Aaron Rodgers’ number one target. Nelson is coming back from a torn ACL, but he hasn’t been injury prone in the past and is coming off a 1,500 plus yard receiving season. Nelson was the missing piece of the Packers offense in 2015 and a huge reason why Rodgers’ numbers were down from his normal standards. Nelson is back with a healthy Rodgers, in-shape Eddie Lacy, improved defense and McCarthy calling plays. I expect him to flourish this season.
Defensive Player of the Year: Luke Kuechly MLB (Carolina Panthers) – Luke Kuechly is one of the best players in the NFL regardless of position and often gets overshadowed by his superstar teammate Cam Newton. With J.J. Watt potentially missing time and Josh Norman gone, Kuechly will take home his second Defensive Player of the Year award. There’s a wide margin between Kuechly and every other middle linebacker in the NFL, because of his unparalleled block shedding skills in the run game and his insane coverage abilities against the pass. His performance in the 2015 playoffs, returning two interceptions for touchdowns was on the same level as Super Bowl MVP Von Miller. I believe Kuechly will lead the league in tackles and have at least five interceptions in another dominant season.
Kuechly is not only great in coverage, but a rare threat to score on defense. He's putting together a 1st ballot hall of fame resume. (Photo Credit: Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)
Most Valuable Player: Russell Wilson QB (Seattle Seahawks) – Speaking of the Carolina Panthers, I expect Russell Wilson to make the same leap that Cam Newton did in 2015. Wilson was arguably the best quarterback in the league the last two months of the 2015 season. With all of his receiving core back, a somewhat improved offensive line and Lynch’s retirement, I expect an All-World season from Russell Wilson. He’s entering his prime years as a quarterback and has a complete command of Darrell Bevell’s offense. They will still have a strong running game with Thomas Rawls carrying the load, but this is Russell’s team now and his numbers will be off the charts. One key will be how well they can utilize Jimmy Graham once he returns to the field, because he’s a red zone nightmare when healthy. I can see Wilson throwing for 4,200 yards with 38 TD’s and fewer than 10 picks. He will also add 600 yards and another 8 touchdowns on the ground in his MVP campaign. 2016 will be the year of Russellmania baby!!!
Final Prediction
Super Bowl LI: Green Bay Packers defeat New England Patriots – Based on my earlier predictions it’s not hard to see that I’m very high on the Green Bay Packers this season. I really like the fact that McCarthy is going back to calling plays. With all the attention the Packers are garnering on offense, I feel their defense will be up to the task of being good enough to win a championship because of Clay Matthews moving back to his natural position as a pass rushing outside linebacker in their 3-4 defense. Matthews struggled at middle linebacker the last two years, but filled the spot out of necessity. He became a star in the NFL because of his elite pass rushing ability and getting back to his roots will make this defense better. A Matthews and Julius Peppers led pass rush will be deadly for offenses trying to play catch up to Green Bay’s offense. Aaron Rodgers will contend for the MVP award during the regular season, but he’ll be at his best come playoff time. I believe they’ll beat the Seahawks in a rematch of the 2015 NFC championship game. This time the game will be in Green Bay and that will make all the difference. I don’t see anyone in the AFC challenging the Patriots. The closest team talent wise is the Steelers, but without Martavis Bryant and no one to defend Rob Gronkowski they will struggle to matchup with the Patriots. At some point, NFL fans deserve to see at least one Super Bowl featuring Aaron Rodgers versus Tom Brady. They have been the gold standard at quarterback in each conference for years and I think we’re due for an all-time quarterback matchup in Super Bowl LI, with the younger Rodgers and a dominant Packers team coming out on top with their fifth Lombardi trophy.
