The Fanatic Perspective 2016 College Football Preview
By: Steven Ngati
Playoff Teams: LSU, Clemson, Stanford, Ohio State
I’m confident on LSU, Clemson and Ohio State making it to the playoffs. With so much uncertainty of returning starters and solid quarterback play, I typically lean on coaching to make the difference. I like Urban Meyer and JT Barrett going to Oklahoma and winning in Norman. Outside of that, Ohio State’s schedule isn’t very daunting as they get Michigan at home to end the season. LSU by default has a tough schedule playing in the SEC West, but I think Leonard Fournette goes all world this year partnered with a much improved defense. Look out for Jamal Adams, Kendall Beckwith and Tre’Davious White to have big seasons on defense. Adams and White have a shot at All-American honors this year. LSU gets Alabama at home and is currently favored in every game they play this season. As great as Nick Saban has recruited and coached, he still has to break in another new quarterback and replace a Heisman trophy winning running back. That won't be easy and I think Alabama will lose two games in the SEC West, opening the door for LSU to win the SEC title. Clemson has to beat FSU at home and obviously Auburn in the opener, but I think they get by because they have the best quarterback in the country, junior Deshaun Watson. I know Clemson sent a ton of guys to the league but they’re still loaded with talent and get junior Mike Williams back from injury who was one of the better receivers in the country in 2014. I really struggled with my fourth team but I went with Stanford. They return Heisman finalist Christian McCaffrey and a dominant offensive line. Ryan Burns will be taking over for Kevin Hogan at QB but Burns is a senior, former 4 star recruit and coached by David Shaw. He’ll be fine. Stanford has everything you can ask for in terms of talent, coaching, and toughness. My issue with them is the schedule. They play UCLA, Washington, Notre Dame and Oregon all on the road this season. Those are road games against four Top 25 opponents which is very brutal. I think Stanford is equipped to survive it though and will make the playoffs over Big 12 champion Oklahoma. It kills me to leave the Big 12 champion out of the playoffs, but I think the conference is very balanced this year and they will canablize one another. I have OU as my Big 12 champion with two conference losses and the disadvantage of no conference title game which will utimately leave them out of the playoffs.
It's going to be a tough road for Stanford to make it to the playoffs, but there's no combo that I trust more than Stanford Head Coach David Shaw and Junior RB Christian McCaffrey to be able to pull it off. (Photo Credit: Evan Mori)
Heisman Winner: Leonard Fournette RB (LSU)
A lot of people are of the opinion that Christian McCaffrey is the best running back in college football. Put me in the Leonard Fournette camp. I understand McCaffrey had one of the most productive seasons of all time surpassing over 3,500 total yards. His numbers were insane and he’s one of the most electric playmakers in the country. McCaffrey is a big reason I’m picking Stanford to go to the Final Four, but I don’t see him getting as many touches and playing on every special teams unit again. He has a smaller frame and his back-up Bryce Love is talented enough to warrant carries in order to split the load. Before last season’s Alabama game, Leonard Fournette was literally running away with the Heisman trophy. (Fournette had rushed for 150 yards plus in seven consecutive games, including 3 straight 200 yard plus performances.) Unfortunately, his team and coaching staff failed him in Tuscaloosa, and the eventual national champs held him to a meager 31 yards rushing. With an improved coaching staff, better QB play and having Alabama come to Death Valley this year, I expect Fournette to clear that hurdle. At 6-1, 235 pounds and 4.35 speed there’s not one person in the last 10 years that’s more physically imposing than Fournette. I believe the team around him has caught up to the point where they’ll be able to keep teams honest and not have 8-9 defenders in the box. I expect over 2,200 yards rushing and 25 plus touchdowns for Fournette in 2016.
Heisman Finalists: Deshaun Watson QB (Clemson) JT Barrett QB (Ohio State) Baker Mayfield QB (Oklahoma) Christian McCaffrey RB (Stanford)
Best Defensive Player: Jabrill Peppers S, CB, LB (Michigan)
Jabrill Peppers is the definition of the new hybrid position that has evolved out of the need of defending high octane spread offenses. Coaches have resorted to getting more speed on the field while sacrificing size. Speed, coverage and open field tackling are premium traits of this position and Peppers excels in all three of these required attributes. Peppers plays cornerback, nickel, safety, and linebacker. He returns kicks and will play offense this season for Michigan. Peppers has been as good as advertised after only one season of college football. He was the top rated recruit in the country coming out of high school and I remember watching the US Army All-American bowl seeing him play for the first time. One of the announcers compared him to a young Charles Woodson and that statement definitely grabbed my attention. What Peppers has evolved into though, is the older Charles Woodson who played nickel and safety for Green Bay. Peppers shares Young Woodson’s versatility for returning kicks and getting snaps at receiver but his defensive prowess echoes the Woodson that helped Green Bay win a Super Bowl in 2011 and be NFL defensive player of the year. Peppers is a redshirt sophomore and eligible to enter the 2017 NFL draft where he will be a high 1st round pick. Expect Jabrill Peppers to be a household name in the same fashion as another hybrid player, Tyrann Mathieu. Yes, he’s Honey Badger good.
The hybrid movement is here. Jabrill Peppers will collect a lot of postseason hardware and will be one of the first names called in the 2017 NFL draft. (Photo Credit: Leon Halip Getty Images)
Most Important Player: Brandon Harris QB (LSU)
LSU doesn’t need Brandon Harris to be as good as Deshaun Watson or even Chad Kelly of Ole Miss. LSU just needs Brandon Harris to be Jake Coker good. Someone who is tough, willing to distribute the ball to playmakers, not turn the ball over and get out of the way of a Heisman contending runner. Seems pretty straightforward, but it’s hard being Jake Coker good because you still need to make plays when called upon and the coaches can’t fall into lulls of conservative play-calling. Nick Saban and Lane Kiffin realized they needed to be just aggressive enough with Coker to create more rushing lanes for 2015 Heisman winner Derrick Henry. That’s where LSU has fallen short with Brandon Harris. They’ve treated him like a handcuffed quarterback and he’s played up to that expectation. Harris was a big time recruit and it’s time for LSU to coach him as such. I’ve already mentioned how good Fournette is, but consider LSU will have Malchi Dupre and Travin Dural lining up at receiver. Those guys are studs who will be playing on Sundays. There’s no excuse to have such a conservative gameplan and it’s on Brandon Harris to be consistently competent. I like the work that Harris has put in this offseason with QB guru George Whitfield Jr. and I expect him to be one of the most improved players in the country. Brandon Harris is the difference between LSU going 8-4 and going undefeated. It’s that simple.
Best Freshman Player: Shane Buechele QB (Texas)
Newsflash, I’m a Texas Longhorn fan so this part may have a slight hint of hope attached to it but I think Shane Buechele is going to be really good, really quick. I know he may not begin the season as the starter over senior Tyrone Swoopes, but it will be a matter of time on the field before the job is fully Buechele’s. There’s a lot to love about Buechele despite being a true freshman. His father is former MLB player and current Texas Rangers bench coach, Steve Buechele. His older sibilings are former collegiate athletes so he comes from an excellent family pedigree. Buechele excelled as the best quarterback in the state of Texas at Arlington Lamar High School and finished in second place during the Elite 11 competition. The most impressive thing on his resume is his spring game performance from April where he threw for 299 yards and 2 touchdowns in one half. Texas installed the 5333 spread offense over the offseason which happens to be the same offense that Buechele played in during his high school days. This also happens to be the same offense that Art Briles developed and installed at Baylor. I know Briles is a scumbag, but you can’t deny the production he got out of Robert Griffin III, Nick Florence, Bryce Petty, Seth Russell and Jarrett Stidham as they each flourished running this attack. New Texas offensive coordinator is a former Briles assistant and has been successful with every quarterback he’s ever coached. Now he gets to work with a stud four star freshman recruit. Shane Buechele as a true freshman is already better than Colt McCoy and Vince Young were as redshirt freshmen and while I’m not saying he will be an all-time great like those guys, I do believe Shane will help lead the Longhorns back to national prominence this season. There’s enough talent and the perfect scheme for him to take off in what looks to be the breakthrough year of the Charlie Strong era.
The fate of Charlie Strong and the hopes of Texas fans are on the arm of true freshman quarterback Shane Buechele and the mind of new offensive coordinator Sterlin Gilbert. No pressure at all guys. (Photo Credit: Will Gallagher/IT)
Breakout Star: Soso Jamabo RB (UCLA)
“Asian girls everywhere, UCLA!” As a Texas fan, I wanted Jamabo badly when he came out of high school in 2015, especially after he tweeted the aforementioned rap lyrics. I’m a huge Donald Glover/Childish Gambino fan so when he had the balls to tweet that on his official UCLA visit, I knew that was the place for him. Fortunately for us, we landed Chris Warren III and all was right in the world of Austin. Jamabo only had 66 carries last year, but he gained over 400 yards and averaged 6 yards per carry. Now that Paul Perkins has moved on to the New York Giants, the path is clear for Jamabo to have a huge season. Jamabo possesses an outstanding combination of size and speed at 6-3, 220 pounds, with 4.45 wheels. If he can improve his pass blocking and catching the ball out of the backfield I don’t see how he won’t become a superstar like his sophomore teammate Josh Rosen did last season. Soso Jamabo will prove his game is just as awesome as his name and personality. I expect 1,300 rushing yards and 15 total touchdowns this season for the true sophomore.
Most Surprising Team: Miami Hurricanes
There’s no question that Mark Richt got burnt out with Georgia and Georgia with him. Despite that, he’s still an excellent football coach and I think he found the perfect situation in the University of Miami. He’s got a future top 3 pick at QB in Brad Kaaya and some excellent talent on the roster. I think the U wins 10 games and beats Florida State in Miami Gardens this season. Joseph Yearby rushed for over 1,000 yards last year and I expect him to be over 1,200 yards and 12 touchdowns to provide Miami with a balanced offensive attack which has been Mark Richt’s staple in the past. Miami will be young on defense but its Miami so you know they’ll be fast as hell no matter who’s out there. Kaaya will be the difference, as elite quarterback play can get you 10 plus wins alone in college football. I’m looking forward to seeing the U back on the national radar this season.
This will be a short, but productive, mututally beneficial relationship. Junior quarterback Brad Kaaya will help Mark Richt win 10 games in his first season. Richt will help Kaaya with the finishing touches he needs to be in the mix as the top QB selected in the 2017 NFL draft. (Photo Credit: Al Diaz)
Most Disappointing Team: Michigan Wolverines
No coach has dominated offseason news like Jim Harbaugh. From the satellite camp controversy, to having spring camp in SEC territory, to spending the night at recruit’s homes, Jim Harbaugh has certainly reasserted Michigan into the national conversation. Going 10-3, including a 41-7 victory over Florida in the Citrus Bowl during your debut season is incredible progress. With that being said, I’ve watched analysts on ESPN slob all over Michigan as the sexy pick to win the Big 10 and make the playoffs. I’ve seen several reputable analysts pick them to win the national championship. While I think they will be very good this season, I am pumping the breaks on them winning the Big 10, let alone making the playoffs or winning the national championship. Harbaugh is a QB guru without a doubt, but I think there will be a drop-off from Jake Rudock who was a 6th round pick in the NFL draft to Shane Morris or John O’Korn. No matter who Harbaugh starts at QB, Michigan will start the season 7-0 before they have to go to East Lansing against an underrated Michigan State team. They will end November having to play at Iowa and at Ohio State for the Big Game. I think they drop two of those three road trips and end up short of the Big 10 championship game. Their strength of schedule won’t be strong enough for them to make a case against other two loss teams lobbying for a playoff spot. Based on the hype, I think a lot of people will be let down when Michigan not only falls short of the playoffs, but a Big 10 title.
National Champions: LSU Tigers
I love Les Miles. No one ever knows exactly what he’s talking about, he eats grass and his nickname is the Mad Hatter. Over 11 seasons at LSU, he’s 112-32 with one national title, two SEC championships and seven 10 win seasons. What’s not to love about Les? How about the pressure and expectations he has to deal with this season. It seemed like he was all but fired in November, and then he seemingly got to keep his job because LSU wasn’t ready to buy him out. I understand several big name coaches are currently on the hot seat, but none of them have playoffs or bust expectations, none of them have a team favored in every game that they’ll play and none of them have the personality of Les. If anyone can navigate their way through a season of high expectations, while keeping their team loose and having fun, it’s Les. What’s held LSU back for years is the quarterback play and conservative play-calling as I highlighted earlier. I believe with the heat on offensive coordinator Cam Cameron to produce, he’ll open things up to be more quarterback friendly for Brandon Harris which essentially makes Leonard Fournette unstoppable. He made Zach Mettenberger a draftable player when he took the handcuffs off him, so I expect similar progress with Harris. That’s the only question with this team, because their defense is loaded and will be one of the best units in the country. It won’t be easy and they probably won’t go undefeated playing in the SEC West, but I think this is the year Miles and the Tigers come out on top.
